Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Uruguay had a probability of 32.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Uruguay win was 0-1 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Argentina in this match.
