SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Chile had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.19%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest Chile win was 0-1 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Venezuela would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Venezuela | Draw | Chile |
41.07% ( 2) | 29.17% ( 0.13) | 29.75% ( -2.14) |
| Both teams to score 43.29% ( -1.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.78% ( -0.95) | 63.22% ( 0.94) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.37% ( -0.69) | 82.62% ( 0.68) |
| Venezuela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.7% ( 0.7) | 30.29% ( -0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.53% ( 0.83) | 66.47% ( -0.84) |
| Chile Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.11% ( -2.14) | 37.89% ( 2.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.33% ( -2.14) | 74.66% ( 2.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Venezuela | Draw | Chile |
| 1-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.72) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.58)2-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.29)3-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.36% Total : 41.06% | 1-1 @ 13.3% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 11.47% ( 0.39)2-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.16% | 0-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.27) 1-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.41)0-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.46)1-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.27)0-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.26)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.13)Other @ 1.67% Total : 29.75% |
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