Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 45.71%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Numancia had a probability of 26.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.24%) and 1-2 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.94%), while for a Numancia win it was 1-0 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Sporting Gijon in this match.
