While Fluminense have turned a corner of late, they are yet to get going at the top end of the pitch, having failed to score two goals or more in a game since the start of June.
That said, we are backing the visitors to claim a fourth 1-0 win in a row and steal a match on their hosts ahead of the return leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 37.75%. A win for Juventude had a probability of 33.78% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.84%) and 0-2 (7.12%). The likeliest Juventude win was 1-0 (11.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
0.06) 
-0.03) 
