Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colo-Colo win with a probability of 46.9%. A win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colo-Colo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.81%) and 2-0 (6.28%). The likeliest Alianza Lima win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Colo-Colo in this match.
