Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 25, 2022 at 11pm UK
Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti
We said: River Plate 3-1 Alianza Lima
The hosts have won both of their home group games by a combined 6-0 scoreline, and we think that River Plate will grab another home win on Wednesday when they face an Alianza Lima side that have picked up just one point in their five group matches.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 58.88%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 19.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.14%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 1-2 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result |
| River Plate | Draw | Alianza Lima |
58.88% ( -0.02) | 21.61% ( 0) | 19.51% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 55.46% ( 0.03) |
| 57.64% ( 0.02) | 42.36% ( -0.02) |
| 35.23% ( 0.02) | 64.77% ( -0.02) |
| 85.94% ( 0) | 14.06% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 58.35% ( 0) | 41.65% |
| 64.53% ( 0.03) | 35.47% ( -0.03) |
