Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 51.27%. A win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 24.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-2 (8.85%). The likeliest Alianza Lima win was 1-0 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for River Plate in this match.
