Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guairena win with a probability of 45.63%. A win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 28.61% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guairena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Independiente Medellin win was 0-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
