Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 64.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 15.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.39%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.79%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
-0.37) 
0.41) 
