SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 51.13%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 22.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (8.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente del Valle | Draw | Melgar |
51.13% ( -0.26) | 26.38% ( 0.03) | 22.49% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 45.3% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.05% ( 0.07) | 57.94% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.35% ( 0.06) | 78.65% ( -0.06) |
| Independiente del Valle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.22% ( -0.09) | 22.78% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.52% ( -0.13) | 56.48% ( 0.12) |
| Melgar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.67% ( 0.27) | 41.33% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.15% ( 0.24) | 77.85% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente del Valle | Draw | Melgar |
| 1-0 @ 13.92% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 10.3% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.08% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.88% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.66% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.71% Total : 51.12% | 1-1 @ 12.3% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.63% Total : 26.37% | 0-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.68% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.2% Total : 22.49% |
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