Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 39.98%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 35.88% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.55%) and 2-0 (5.89%). The likeliest Independiente win was 1-2 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
