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Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 2, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Nacional
2 - 3
Argentinos Jrs

Rivas (77'), Arevalo (89')
Fernando Alfaro (15'), Fernando Alfaro (16'), Meza (72')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Romero (29', 45+2'), Lescano (41')
Meza (13')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Club Nacional and Argentinos Juniors.

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Palestino 1-3 Nacional (3-1 pen.)
Wednesday, March 13 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Last Game: Instituto 1-2 Argentinos Jrs
Friday, March 29 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentinos Juniors win with a probability of 44.55%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Club Nacional had a probability of 26.73%.

The most likely scoreline for an Argentinos Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.09%) and 1-2 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.08%), while for a Club Nacional win it was 1-0 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Argentinos Juniors would win this match.

Result
Club NacionalDrawArgentinos Juniors
26.73% (-0.012 -0.01) 28.73% (-0.026 -0.03) 44.55% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Both teams to score 42.88% (0.062999999999995 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.05% (0.082999999999998 0.08)62.95% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.57% (0.061 0.06)82.43% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
Club Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.76% (0.036999999999999 0.04)40.25% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.12% (0.033000000000001 0.03)76.88% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Argentinos Juniors Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.77% (0.064000000000007 0.06)28.24% (-0.061 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.06% (0.079000000000001 0.08)63.94% (-0.076000000000008 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Club Nacional 26.72%
    Argentinos Juniors 44.55%
    Draw 28.72%
Club NacionalDrawArgentinos Juniors
1-0 @ 10.34% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 5.95% (0.0040000000000004 0)
2-0 @ 4.71% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-1 @ 1.81% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 1.43%
3-2 @ 1.14% (0.004 0)
Other @ 1.35%
Total : 26.72%
1-1 @ 13.08%
0-0 @ 11.36% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 3.76% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.52%
Total : 28.72%
0-1 @ 14.37% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 9.09% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-2 @ 8.27% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.83% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.49% (0.011 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.59% (0.006 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.21% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.1% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 1.61%
Total : 44.55%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Palestino 1-3 Nacional (3-1 pen.)
Wednesday, March 13 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 0-2 Palestino
Wednesday, March 6 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico Nacional 0-3 Nacional
Thursday, February 29 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 1-0 Atletico Nacional
Thursday, February 22 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 3-0 Aucas
Friday, February 16 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Aucas 1-0 Nacional
Friday, February 9 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Instituto 1-2 Argentinos Jrs
Friday, March 29 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Argentinos Jrs 3-0 Rosario
Wednesday, March 20 at 12.15am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Huracan 1-1 Argentinos Jrs
Sunday, March 10 at 8pm in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Argentinos Jrs 2-0 Gimnasia
Wednesday, March 6 at 8pm in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Independiente 2-1 Argentinos Jrs
Saturday, March 2 at 10.15pm in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Argentinos Jrs 3-1 Platense
Monday, February 26 at 10.30pm in Argentine Primera Division


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