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Copa Libertadores | First Round | 1st Leg
Feb 9, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Aucas
1 - 0
Nacional

Medina (85' pen.)
Gonzalez (12'), Sanabria (33'), Canga (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Orzusa (28'), Silva (53'), Santacruz (71'), Duarte (66'), Ojeda (83')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Aucas and Club Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Flamengo 4-0 Aucas
Thursday, June 29 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Last Game: Cristal 5-1 Nacional
Wednesday, March 1 at 12am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aucas win with a probability of 44.96%. A win for Club Nacional had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aucas win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Club Nacional win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Aucas in this match.

Result
AucasDrawClub Nacional
44.96% (0.015999999999998 0.02) 25.56% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 29.49% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
Both teams to score 53.55% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.9% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)50.1% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.93% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)72.07% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Aucas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.75% (0.0099999999999909 0.01)22.25% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.32% (0.013999999999996 0.01)55.69% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Club Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.88% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)31.12% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.55% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)67.45% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Aucas 44.95%
    Club Nacional 29.49%
    Draw 25.55%
AucasDrawClub Nacional
1-0 @ 10.4%
2-1 @ 9.13% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 7.82% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 4.57% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-0 @ 3.92% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-2 @ 2.67% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.72% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 1.47% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 44.95%
1-1 @ 12.14%
0-0 @ 6.92% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-2 @ 5.33% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 1.04%
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.55%
0-1 @ 8.08% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
1-2 @ 7.09% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-2 @ 4.72% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-3 @ 2.76% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 2.07%
0-3 @ 1.84% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 29.49%

Read more!
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Form Guide
Last Game: Flamengo 4-0 Aucas
Thursday, June 29 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Aucas 0-0 Nublense
Thursday, June 8 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Aucas 1-2 Racing
Wednesday, May 24 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nublense 2-1 Aucas
Tuesday, May 2 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Racing 3-2 Aucas
Thursday, April 20 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Aucas 2-1 Flamengo
Wednesday, April 5 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Cristal 5-1 Nacional
Wednesday, March 1 at 12am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 2-0 Cristal
Tuesday, February 21 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 3-1 Huancayo
Wednesday, February 15 at 12am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Huancayo 2-1 Nacional
Wednesday, February 8 at 12am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Guairena 0-0 Nacional
Thursday, March 17 at 10.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Nacional 0-1 Guairena
Thursday, March 10 at 10.15pm in Copa Sudamericana


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