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Copa Libertadores | Second Round | 1st Leg
Feb 22, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Nacional
1 - 0
Atletico Nacional

Duarte (49')
Orzusa (45'), Blasi (51'), Ojeda (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Castro (49'), Duque (87'), Mejia (90')
Castro (90+2')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Second Round clash between Club Nacional and Atletico Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Nacional 3-0 Aucas
Friday, February 16 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Last Game: Racing 3-0 Atletico Nacional
Friday, August 11 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Nacional win with a probability of 43.73%. A win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 29.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Atletico Nacional win was 0-1 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Club Nacional in this match.

Result
Club NacionalDrawAtletico Nacional
43.73% (-0.388 -0.39) 27.18% (0.348 0.35) 29.08% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Both teams to score 48.39% (-0.991 -0.99)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.34% (-1.279 -1.28)56.66% (1.279 1.28)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.37% (-1.041 -1.04)77.62% (1.04 1.04)
Club Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.27% (-0.774 -0.77)25.72% (0.774 0.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.35% (-1.06 -1.06)60.64% (1.059 1.06)
Atletico Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.14% (-0.65000000000001 -0.65)34.85% (0.65 0.65)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.41% (-0.689 -0.69)71.59% (0.691 0.69)
Score Analysis
    Club Nacional 43.73%
    Atletico Nacional 29.08%
    Draw 27.18%
Club NacionalDrawAtletico Nacional
1-0 @ 12.17% (0.33 0.33)
2-1 @ 8.71% (-0.112 -0.11)
2-0 @ 8.26% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
3-1 @ 3.94% (-0.14 -0.14)
3-0 @ 3.74% (-0.065 -0.07)
3-2 @ 2.08% (-0.112 -0.11)
4-1 @ 1.34% (-0.079 -0.08)
4-0 @ 1.27% (-0.051 -0.05)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 43.73%
1-1 @ 12.83% (0.12 0.12)
0-0 @ 8.96% (0.431 0.43)
2-2 @ 4.59% (-0.142 -0.14)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 27.18%
0-1 @ 9.45% (0.294 0.29)
1-2 @ 6.76% (-0.056 -0.06)
0-2 @ 4.98% (0.069000000000001 0.07)
1-3 @ 2.38% (-0.062 -0.06)
0-3 @ 1.75% (-0.006 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.61% (-0.08 -0.08)
Other @ 2.15%
Total : 29.08%

Read more!
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Form Guide
Last Game: Nacional 3-0 Aucas
Friday, February 16 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Aucas 1-0 Nacional
Friday, February 9 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Cristal 5-1 Nacional
Wednesday, March 1 at 12am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 2-0 Cristal
Tuesday, February 21 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 3-1 Huancayo
Wednesday, February 15 at 12am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Huancayo 2-1 Nacional
Wednesday, February 8 at 12am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Racing 3-0 Atletico Nacional
Friday, August 11 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico Nacional 4-2 Racing
Friday, August 4 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico Nacional 0-1 Patronato
Wednesday, June 28 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Olimpia 3-0 Atletico Nacional
Friday, June 9 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Melgar 0-1 Atletico Nacional
Thursday, May 25 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico Nacional 2-2 Olimpia
Wednesday, May 3 at 1am in Copa Libertadores


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