The Brazilians have a lot of momentum at home heading into this contest, and their recent experience in these must-win games should propel them to a narrow triumph. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 63.02%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Rosario Central had a probability of 14.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.45%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Rosario Central win it was 0-1 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.

Result
Fortaleza	Draw	Rosario Central
63.02% ( 0.01)	22.89% ( -0.01)	14.09% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 40.78% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.75% (

0.05)

56.25% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.71% (

0.04)

77.29% (

-0.04)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.56% (

0.02)

17.44% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.11% (

0.04)

47.89% (

-0.04)

Rosario Central Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.4% (

0.05)

50.6% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.93% (

0.03)

85.07% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Fortaleza 63.01%

Rosario Central 14.09%

Draw 22.88%

Fortaleza	Draw	Rosario Central
1-0 @ 15.41% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 13.45% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.84% 3-1 @ 5.34% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.42% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.33% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0) Other @ 3.04% Total : 63.01%	1-1 @ 10.49% 0-0 @ 8.82% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.88%	0-1 @ 6.01% ( -0) 1-2 @ 3.58% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.05% ( 0) Other @ 2.46% Total : 14.09%