Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 48.41%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 26.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.86%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
-0.47) 
0.96) 
