Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guabira win with a probability of 43.48%. A win for Jorge Wilstermann had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guabira win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Jorge Wilstermann win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guabira would win this match.
