Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 49.38%. A win for Guabira had a probability of 29.05% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.05%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Guabira win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.
