Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jorge Wilstermann win with a probability of 47.89%. A win for Guabira had a probability of 28.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jorge Wilstermann win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Guabira win was 1-2 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jorge Wilstermann would win this match.
