SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 61.35%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Deportivo Cali had a probability of 17.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.91%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for a Deportivo Cali win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melgar | Draw | Deportivo Cali |
61.35% ( -0.12) | 21.57% ( 0.03) | 17.07% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 50.97% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.95% ( 0.02) | 46.05% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.65% ( 0.02) | 68.35% ( -0.02) |
| Melgar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.5% ( -0.03) | 14.5% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.5% ( -0.06) | 42.5% ( 0.06) |
| Deportivo Cali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.61% ( 0.12) | 40.38% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23% ( 0.11) | 77% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melgar | Draw | Deportivo Cali |
| 1-0 @ 11.3% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 10.91% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 6.37% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.08% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.4% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.19% ( -0)Other @ 2.58% Total : 61.34% | 1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.86% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.98% Total : 21.57% | 0-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.65% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.95% Total : 17.07% |
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