Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 44.59%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.77%) and 2-0 (6.01%). The likeliest Melgar win was 1-2 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
