Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metropolitanos win with a probability of 44.89%. A win for Estudiantes Merida had a probability of 31.79% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metropolitanos win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.36%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Estudiantes Merida win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metropolitanos would win this match.
