Nacional
1 - 2
Penarol

(2-2 on aggregate)

Bergessio (90+5')
Marichal (65'), Mendez (76')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Canobbio (45+2'), Rodriguez (90+2')
Rodriguez (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Nacional and Penarol, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 48.35%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 26.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Penarol
48.35%	25.32%	26.34%

Both teams to score 52.07%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.02%

50.98%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.15%

72.84%

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.9%

21.1%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.07%

53.93%

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66%

34%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.32%

70.68%

Score Analysis

Nacional 48.34%

Penarol 26.34%

Draw 25.32%

Nacional	Draw	Penarol
1-0 @ 11.16% 2-1 @ 9.37% 2-0 @ 8.68% 3-1 @ 4.86% 3-0 @ 4.5% 3-2 @ 2.62% 4-1 @ 1.89% 4-0 @ 1.75% 4-2 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.49% Total : 48.34%	1-1 @ 12.04% 0-0 @ 7.17% 2-2 @ 5.05% 3-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.32%	0-1 @ 7.74% 1-2 @ 6.5% 0-2 @ 4.18% 1-3 @ 2.34% 2-3 @ 1.82% 0-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 2.27% Total : 26.34%