Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 48.81%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 24.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (8.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
