Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 52.33%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 22.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.19%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.01%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
