Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 57.07%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Sporting Cristal had a probability of 19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Sporting Cristal win it was 0-1 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.

Result
Penarol	Draw	Sporting Cristal
57.07%	23.93%	19%

Both teams to score 47.34%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.26%

52.74%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.63%

74.37%

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.7%

18.31%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.61%

49.39%

Sporting Cristal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.95%

42.05%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.52%

78.48%

Score Analysis

Penarol 57.06%

Sporting Cristal 19%

Draw 23.93%

Penarol	Draw	Sporting Cristal
1-0 @ 13.07% 2-0 @ 11.09% 2-1 @ 9.61% 3-0 @ 6.28% 3-1 @ 5.44% 4-0 @ 2.67% 3-2 @ 2.36% 4-1 @ 2.31% 4-2 @ 1% 5-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.32% Total : 57.06%	1-1 @ 11.32% 0-0 @ 7.7% 2-2 @ 4.16% Other @ 0.75% Total : 23.93%	0-1 @ 6.67% 1-2 @ 4.9% 0-2 @ 2.89% 1-3 @ 1.42% 2-3 @ 1.2% Other @ 1.93% Total : 19%