Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Cristal win with a probability of 45.71%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Cristal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Penarol win was 1-2 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
