SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 50.29%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 22.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (8.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
50.29% ( 0.14) | 26.86% ( -0.09) | 22.84% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 44.4% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.68% ( 0.25) | 59.32% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.28% ( 0.19) | 79.72% ( -0.19) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.25% ( 0.17) | 23.75% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.11% ( 0.25) | 57.89% ( -0.25) |
| Independiente Medellin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.23% ( 0.09) | 41.77% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.76% ( 0.08) | 78.24% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
| 1-0 @ 14.26% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 10.25% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.29% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.77% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.45% Total : 50.29% | 1-1 @ 12.44% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.92% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.59% Total : 26.86% | 0-1 @ 8.66% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 5.43% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.58% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.1% ( -0)Other @ 1.15% Total : 22.84% |
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