Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 56.85%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Metropolitanos had a probability of 17.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.4%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Metropolitanos win it was 0-1 (7.57%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.
0.08) 
-0.1) 
