SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 45.29%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Nacional |
45.29% ( 0.01) | 26.45% ( -0.01) | 28.26% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 50.05% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.71% ( 0.02) | 54.29% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.31% ( 0.01) | 75.68% ( -0.02) |
| Independiente Medellin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.1% ( 0.01) | 23.89% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.9% ( 0.02) | 58.1% ( -0.02) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.76% ( 0) | 34.24% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.06% ( 0) | 70.93% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 11.71% 2-1 @ 8.99% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.38% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.29% ( 0)3-0 @ 4% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.53% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0)Other @ 2.66% Total : 45.29% | 1-1 @ 12.55% 0-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0)Other @ 0.91% Total : 26.45% | 0-1 @ 8.77% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.73% 0-2 @ 4.7% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.4% 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.68% ( -0)Other @ 2.26% Total : 28.26% |
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