Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 42.66%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 31.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Lanus win was 1-0 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
