Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 36.55%. A win for Atletico Tucuman had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.57%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Atletico Tucuman win was 0-1 (11.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.