Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (10.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
