Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 38.45%. A win for Union had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.72%) and 2-1 (7.36%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (12.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
