Given their contrasting form, this has all the makings of an interesting contest. Nevertheless, while Cittadella will fancy their chances of pulling off the upset, we feel inclined to back Cagliari to claim a narrow victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cittadella win with a probability of 44.86%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cittadella win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.69%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
