There is no downplaying the importance of this match, even this early in the season. Both managers will be desperate to avoid defeat, which is likely to create a cagey affair, and we can see the two teams playing out a low-scoring draw on Friday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 39.01%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 33.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
