Aside from their comprehensive loss in Milan last time out, Empoli have been one of Serie A's most durable sides this season, and they have a good recent record against Fiorentina. The hosts should still edge through via a close-fought derby win, though, having proven their ability to progress in cup competitions over the past couple of years. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 70.1%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 11.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.63%) and 3-0 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.88%), while for a Empoli win it was 0-1 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.

Result
Fiorentina	Draw	Empoli
70.1% ( 1.56)	18.76% ( -0.35)	11.14% ( -1.22)

Both teams to score 44.39% (

-2.74)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.47% (

-1.55)

46.53% (

1.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.19% (

-1.48)

68.8% (

1.47)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.93% (

-0.02)

12.07% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.41% (

-0.04)

37.59% (

0.03)

Empoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.48% (

-3.1)

49.51% (

3.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.68% (

-2.28)

84.32% (

2.28)

Score Analysis

Fiorentina 70.09%

Empoli 11.14%

Draw 18.76%

Fiorentina	Draw	Empoli
2-0 @ 13.36% ( 0.84) 1-0 @ 12.63% ( 0.8) 3-0 @ 9.42% ( 0.58) 2-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.22) 3-1 @ 6.62% ( -0.16) 4-0 @ 4.98% ( 0.31) 4-1 @ 3.5% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.28) 5-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.13) 5-1 @ 1.48% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.15) Other @ 3.06% Total : 70.09%	1-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.38) 2-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.39) Other @ 0.6% Total : 18.76%	0-1 @ 4.2% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 3.12% ( -0.37) 0-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.17) Other @ 2.35% Total : 11.14%