Lecce's only loss from five previous top-flight home games against Empoli came back in 2006, and they should continue that trend on Friday evening - providing they can convert their chances.
While the Azzurri's defence has stood firm this season, they may be tempted to press forward against ailing opponents, and their hosts have the potential to counter-attack.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 38.68%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 33.42% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Empoli win was 0-1 (10.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
0.41) 
-0.78) 
