SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 66.95%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 13.43%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.51%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.33%), while for a Empoli win it was 0-1 (4.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Empoli |
66.95% ( 0.55) | 19.61% ( -0.13) | 13.43% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 48.62% ( -0.75) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.33% ( -0.38) | 44.66% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.97% ( -0.37) | 67.02% ( 0.37) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.6% ( 0.04) | 12.4% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.71% ( 0.09) | 38.28% ( -0.09) |
| Empoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.5% ( -0.88) | 44.5% ( 0.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.47% ( -0.72) | 80.53% ( 0.72) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Empoli |
| 2-0 @ 12.02% ( 0.24) 1-0 @ 11.51% ( 0.2)2-1 @ 9.73% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 3.54% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.08)5-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.17% Total : 66.94% | 1-1 @ 9.33% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.82% Total : 19.61% | 0-1 @ 4.47% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.3% Total : 13.44% |
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