Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benevento win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benevento win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Genoa win was 1-0 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
0.79) 
-1.18) 
