Genoa are past the point where draws are any use to them and must go all out for maximum points against direct rivals, particularly with the game being on home territory. Nevertheless, Cagliari will treat this fixture as a must-not-lose, and we are backing the visitors to claim a hard-earned share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 41.35%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Genoa in this match.

Result
Genoa	Draw	Cagliari
41.35%	27.44%	31.22%

Both teams to score 48.62%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.18%

56.82%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.24%

77.76%

Genoa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.95%

27.05%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.58%

62.42%

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.65%

33.35%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.03%

69.97%

Score Analysis

Genoa 41.34%

Cagliari 31.22%

Draw 27.43%

Genoa	Draw	Cagliari
1-0 @ 11.79% 2-1 @ 8.47% 2-0 @ 7.71% 3-1 @ 3.69% 3-0 @ 3.36% 3-2 @ 2.03% 4-1 @ 1.21% 4-0 @ 1.1% Other @ 1.99% Total : 41.34%	1-1 @ 12.95% 0-0 @ 9.02% 2-2 @ 4.65% Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.43%	0-1 @ 9.91% 1-2 @ 7.11% 0-2 @ 5.44% 1-3 @ 2.6% 0-3 @ 1.99% 2-3 @ 1.7% Other @ 2.47% Total : 31.22%