Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 42.95%. A win for Venezia had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Venezia win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ascoli would win this match.
0.63) 
-0.19) 
