Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 46.59%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Ternana win was 0-1 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ascoli would win this match.
