SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lesotho win with a probability of 51.31%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 24.89% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lesotho win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Malawi win was 0-1 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lesotho would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lesotho | Draw | Malawi |
51.31% ( 0.01) | 23.8% ( 0) | 24.89% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 55.55% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.26% ( -0.02) | 45.74% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.94% ( -0.02) | 68.06% ( 0.02) |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.15% ( -0) | 17.85% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.39% ( -0.01) | 48.6% ( 0.01) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.62% ( -0.02) | 32.38% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.1% ( -0.02) | 68.89% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lesotho | Draw | Malawi |
| 1-0 @ 9.96% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.68% 2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.56% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.93% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.13% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.4% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.12% 4-2 @ 1.35% ( -0)Other @ 3.6% Total : 51.31% | 1-1 @ 11.23% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.78% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.46% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.8% | 0-1 @ 6.52% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.33% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.67% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.38% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.05% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.38% ( -0)Other @ 2.55% Total : 24.89% |
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