Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 43.08%. A win for Botswana had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Botswana win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that South Africa would win this match.
