Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a ADO Den Haag win with a probability of 40.5%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 34.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an ADO Den Haag win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 0-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that ADO Den Haag would win this match.
0.24) 
-0.17) 
