Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.33%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Jong FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.
