Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 46.15%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 31.48% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.35%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
