Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 43.65%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 30.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 0-1 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.
