Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 41%. A win for Telstar had a probability of 34.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.61%) and 2-0 (6.05%). The likeliest Telstar win was 1-2 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.
